HD expert predicts slow adoption of electric trucks
Is Pam Oakes badmouthing purebred electric trucks? Not exactly, but the tractor-trailer expert believes that the switchover from gas engines to the carbon-neutral kind will be anything but a clean break for the heavy-duty vehicle community.
Electric-powered vehicle adoption by fleet owners, predicts Oakes, an ASE master instructor with ties to the International brand and Delphi, will transition at a slower rate — perhaps decades longer — than personal car ownership. "There's so much going on. It's not just everything in a neat box. Consider the many elements that fleet operators have to look at," said Oakes.
Concerns from ready physical infrastructure to high switching costs, voiced by Oakes, poses a classic chicken-before-the-egg dilemma. Most big rig operators prefer diesel motors known for their long service life. Because of that reason, they are reluctant to retire their vehicles at a time when e-commerce orders compounded by COVID-19 medical supplies are peaking. Until new model sticker prices drop and battery charging stations become accessible to the long haulers that strive for uptime, it's unlikely that EVs will replace preexisting trucks. "It's going to be a long time before you see a shift," Oakes noted, referring to the nearly nine million medium and heavy vehicles registered inside the United States.
This attitude contrasts with the auto industry's aggressive push to phase out fossil-fuel motors, recently including Volvo's announcement to reach its goal by 2030, five years ahead of General Motor's target.
Heavy vehicle ownership, notes Oakes, presents a higher EV swap over threshold compared with the lighter versions. These multiple-ton trucks characteristically cost beyond the six-figure range and are customized to specification, unlike off-the-lot cars and trucks. What's more, replacing an expired part is not necessarily an incentive to scrap these machines that typically stick to regimented maintenance plans.
The total cost of ownership boils down to longevity and bottom-line expenses to keep these shippers driving around the clock. What would it take to sideline an internal engine truck? "When catastrophic failure happens, and I'm not just talking about a worn engine," said Oakes, who spoke from her office in Tampa.
Two underdeveloped technologies — prolonged downtime at the charging station in addition to limited driving ranges — make it that more challenging to assure timely arrivals. "These vehicles are going to have to plug in. Our infrastructure is going to have to handle that electric load. Will it? Some say three to four cars per block."
Calculated altogether, these considerations factor into the hyper-competitive transportation marketplace as to why a shipping company wants to become the last, not the first, to buy an EV truck, explains Oakes. If one delivery company raises shipping rates to offset a new vehicle purchase, they risk losing customers. "The businessperson's objective is to make money. But how much longer will the account absorb the cost before going to another vendor?" Oakes said.
Undeterred by profit motives, the United States Postal Service is forging ahead. To that end, Workhorse Group and Oshkosh Defense have been trying to outbid the other over winning a 10-year contract with the government mail courier. The postal agency's commitment to go green received a boost in January when the Biden administration declared its full support to invest in a battery-driven fleet.
Meanwhile, both manufacturers of electric delivery vans have been busy courting FedEx and United Parcel Service. By year-end, Workhorse intends to output 1,800 trucks and vans with 8,000 orders in tow, wrote the New York Times in February.
When it falls to a pollution-free driving environment, Oakes is ready. But she asserts that too many people are putting excessive faith in electrical grids as the only form of clean energy. And that, too, carries a dirty side. "Where's the electricity coming from? The power plant and where do you think they are sourcing their energy?"
Areas of the nation still rely on coal, such as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with a growing electrical vehicle segment. However, utility companies continue to shutter the pollutant emitting coal facilities in the hundreds, reports the New York Times.
One energy-dense alternative called E-gas, a synthetic fuel developed by Porsche, intrigues Oakes. If this eco-friendly formulation gains market acceptance, Oakes believes it would restore confidence in the internal combustion engine. Motorists of any application would be able to pump the gas into their ride as it stands, explains Porsche told by the Los Angeles Times.
According to Porsche, this fuel substitute satisfies environmental standards because no new greenhouse gases reenter the atmosphere. The fuel energy process imports carbon dioxide from the air so that when the fumes exit the tailpipe, it emits a carbon-neutral result.
As Oakes sees the future, automotive technology advancements are an adapt-or-die road map for the repairer segment. She holds no illusions that EVs or plug-in hybrids are low-maintenance vehicles, as marketing claims.
Roughly 818,900 automotive techs and repairers are employed in this field, estimates the U.S. Bureau of Labor, and they project a three to five percent drop through the end of 2029. Declining numbers remain a long-term source of anxiety to the dealer and independent repair sector, explains Oakes. Ultimately, the truck dealers will depend on the aftermarket's expertise to diagnose and service the upcoming generation of makes.
In that respect, Oakes foresees opportunities for techs to grow a lucrative career in general practice and specialized repair. So long as the automobile count grows and on-call techs shrink, the shop owner can leverage how much more they may charge, notably in cases when the supply chain needs delivery vehicles to deliver inventory.
Falling behind or delaying education could potentially hinder the supply chain, too. Oakes urges mastery of electrical systems and that fleets develop knowledge-based technicians. "It might be inconvenient to sit in a classroom or a webinar for a couple of hours. But it's really inconvenient when you get that truck in the shop and you don't know what's going on."
