Edmunds.com, a resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,328,397 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. The projected sales will be a 5.3 percent decrease from June 2013, but a 15.2 percent increase from July 2012. Edmunds.com anticipates that this month will be the biggest July performance since 2006 when automakers sold 1,489,359 vehicles.
"Overall sales are undoubtedly strong, but what makes July truly impressive is that fleet sales are so low," says Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. "That means retail sales are stepping up as the driving force for the auto industry. When people jump back into the market, it's great news not just for the automotive sector, but for the entire U.S. economy."
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume
Jul-13 Forecast
Jul-12
Jun-13
Change from Jul 2012
Change from Jun 2013
GM
239,972
201,237
264,843
19.2%
-9.4%
Toyota
199,716
164,898
195,235
21.1%
2.3%
Ford
193,914
173,482
234,917
11.8%
-17.5%
Chrysler Group
140,160
126,089
156,686
11.2%
-10.5%
Honda
134,429
116,944
136,915
15.0%
-1.8%
Hyundai/Kia
117,354
110,095
115,543
6.6%
1.6%
Nissan
115,697
98,341
104,124
17.6%
11.1%
VW/Audi
48,272
48,721
50,663
-0.9%
-4.7%
Industry
1,328,397
1,153,092
1,402,274
15.2%
-5.3%
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.6 million vehicles in July, with fleet transactions accounting for 14 percent of total sales, the lowest proportion for any month this year. An estimated 3.18 million used cars will be sold in July, for a SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.07 million – or a SAAR of 37.1 million – used car sales in June).
In a bit of a surprise, Edmunds.com projects that Toyota will beat out Ford in total sales this month, the first time since March 2010. The Japanese automaker will claim 15.0 percent of U.S. auto sales in July, its highest share since January 2013. Ford's share, meanwhile, is expected to fall 2.2 percentage points from June, the biggest month-to-month decrease of any automaker. Its projected 14.6 percent share this month will be the company's lowest single-month share since August 2009 (14.3 percent).
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share
Jul-13 Forecast
Jul-12
Jun-13
Change from
July 2012
(Percentage pts.)
Change from
June 2013
(Percentage pts.)
GM
18.1%
17.5%
18.9%
0.6%
-0.8%
Toyota
15.0%
14.3%
13.9%
0.7%
1.1%
Ford
14.6%
15.0%
16.8%
-0.4%
-2.2%
Chrysler Group
10.6%
10.9%
11.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
Honda
10.1%
10.1%
9.8%
0.0%
0.4%
Hyundai/Kia
8.8%
9.5%
8.2%
-0.7%
0.6%
Nissan
8.7%
8.5%
7.4%
0.2%
1.3%
VW/Audi
3.6%
4.2%
3.6%
-0.6%
0.0%
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
