Edmunds.com, the resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.
The overall sales projections suggest that the government shutdown earliersthis month had minimal effect on auto sales. But, says Edmunds.com, a longer shutdown could have left an ugly mark on what has been otherwise a glowing year for the automotive industry.
"It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry's momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington."
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume
Oct-13 Forecast
Oct-12
Sep-13
Change from Oct 2012*
Change from Sep 2013*
GM
215,274
195,764
187,195
10.0%
15.0%
Ford
193,988
167,947
184,452
15.5%
5.2%
Toyota
178,828
155,242
164,457
15.2%
8.7%
Chrysler Group
139,848
126,185
143,017
10.8%
-2.2%
Honda
120,484
106,973
105,563
12.6%
14.1%
Hyundai/Kia
95,786
92,723
93,105
3.3%
2.9%
Nissan
94,492
79,685
86,868
18.6%
8.8%
VW/Audi
46,798
46,019
44,985
1.7%
4.0%
Industry
1,229,860
1,091,546
1,136,218
12.7%
8.2%
*NOTE: October 2013 had 27 selling days, October 2012 had 26 and September 2013 had 23.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.0 million vehicles in October, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.06 million used cars will be sold in October, for a SAAR of 35.6 million (compared to 3.02 million—or a SAAR of 36.3 million—used car sales in September).
While most major automakers are expected to easily clear September's sales totals, Edmunds.com projects that Chrysler sales will fall 2.2 percent month to month. As a result, Edmunds.com expects that the company's market share will recede 1.2 percentage points in October, just one month after it hit its highest share in over five years.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share
Oct-13 Forecast
Oct-12
Sep-13
Change from
October 2012
(Percentage pts.)
Change from September 2013
(Percentage pts.)
GM
17.5%
17.9%
16.5%
-0.4%
1.0%
Ford
15.8%
15.4%
16.2%
0.4%
-0.5%
Toyota
14.5%
14.2%
14.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Chrysler Group
11.4%
11.6%
12.6%
-0.2%
-1.2%
Honda
9.8%
9.8%
9.3%
0.0%
0.5%
Hyundai/Kia
7.8%
8.5%
8.2%
-0.7%
-0.4%
Nissan
7.7%
7.3%
7.6%
0.4%
0.0%
VW/Audi
3.8%
4.2%
4.0%
-0.4%
-0.2%
General Motors, meanwhile, is expected to create a little breathing room at the top of the sales standings. Edmunds.com projects that GM sales will increase 15 percent from September to October, outpacing top rival Ford's growth of 5.2 percent. In September, Ford finished within almost 3,000 sales of GM's total, and nearly claimed its first head-to-head victory since March 2011.
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
