The Automotive Aftermarket Supplier Association recently examined the impact of rising new car sales on the automotive aftermarket. The AASA analysis presents the following scenarios:
Consumers may consider buying new vehicles instead of repairing or maintaining older vehicles as the repairs on those older vehicles become more expensive.
Some of the higher net worth individuals who had older vehicles will migrate back to younger vehicles, potentially pressuring aftermarket ticket size.
We will likely see a peak in average vehicle age in the next couple of years if not sooner.
New car sales forecasts are well above 15 million for 2013 and trending up; the sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in January was 15.4 million units. These strong sales are expected to continue by forecasters for at least the next three years, with inflow from new sales expected to exceed the outflow from scrappage.
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