Even though hybrid vehicles have been on U.S. roads for 20 years, they only make up roughly 2.5 percent of the total vehicles in the U.S. fleet. And according to many consumer surveys, only a small percentage of current customers would opt for a hybrid or all-electric version of their favorite model, if that option were offered.
Why, then, are the Big Three investing so heavily in this market segment, especially with an eye on BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles)?
First, a definition Hybrid vehicles are defined as any vehicle that combines both an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and an electric propulsion system. This covers everything from a mild hybrid (using a small AC motor to allow for "stop/start" functionality) to full hybrids like the popular Toyota Prius. A further distinction is how the battery is charged. Can it be charged by the electrical grid or only by the operation of the ICE? Those that can be plugged into a charging port are appropriately referred to as a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV). And finally, there is the electric-only vehicle, or Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) like the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt or any of the Tesla models, just to cover a few.
All use some form of high-voltage battery to supply power to the electric Motor/Generator (MGs). Many models use Nickel Metal Hydride battery packs while others incorporate Lithium-Ion batteries – with Li batteries increasingly preferred by the OEs.
Globally, there have been more than 17 million hybrid electric vehicles sold worldwide since their inception in 1997. Japan has the world's largest hybrid electric vehicle population and has the world's highest hybrid market penetration with hybrids representing 19 percent of all passenger cars on the road. The U.S. ranks second with cumulative sales of 5.4 million units since 1999, and Europe comes in third with 3 million.
And, according to some sources, while the overall sales of hybrid vehicles have softened, PHEVs are relatively steady and BEVs are on the rise. For example, of the 1.6 million PHEV/BEVs sold in the U.S. since 2010, more than 1 million were BEV. In this combined market segment, the U.S. comes in third, accounting for 20 percent of global sales with Europe coming in second at 25 percent.
The leader? China, accounting for more than 47 percent of sales with more than 95 percent of those sold by their domestic manufacturers. Referred to there as New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), they are also way out in front when it comes to buses, light truck and commercial vehicles and even medium-heavy duty trucks — all powered solely by battery.
One reason? Emissions
With gas prices relatively low in the U.S. when compared to other parts of the world, it is understandable why most American consumers are still so attached to their conventionally powered modes of transportation. But we must remember that U.S. manufacturers operate on a global scale. And the trend in that market appears to favor significant growth in the demand for electric-only vehicles.
One factor pushing the move to BEV is ever increasingly stringent emissions standards. And not just here in the U.S. Many European countries have enacted mandates calling for the phase-out of vehicles relying on fossil fuel for power as early as five years from now.
According to a recent report from the International Council On Clean Transportation, Norway’s 2025 target is the most ambitious for phasing out traditional combustion engine vehicles. The government’s 2017 Transport Plan states that sales of passenger cars and light vans shall be zero-emissions from 2025 onward. Under the plan, preconditions are “improvements in technological maturity in a way that zero-emission vehicles will be competitive in relation to conventional vehicles."
England is another country with phase-out plans. They've accelerated their proposed phase-out to 2035 from 2040. The government announced the new goal in February 2020, revising policies to end the sale of new conventional gasoline and diesel cars, including new PHEVs and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).
Here in the U.S., California recently took action to do the same. The latest and most ambitious is an executive order issued by Governor Gavin Newsom. Announced in September 2020, the order requires that sales of all new passenger vehicles be zero-emission by 2035. Earlier in the year, the California Air Resources Board passed a similar mandate impacting the medium and heavy-duty truck market. The rules, which take effect in 2024, will require at least 40 percent of all tractor-trailers sold in California to be zero-emission (powered by battery or hydrogen fuel cells) by 2035. For smaller trucks, including models like the Ford F-250, 55 percent of all sales would be zero-emission by 2035. The standard is the toughest for delivery trucks and vans, with 75 percent of sales required to be zero-emission by 2035. Finally, all truck sales in the state will be limited to zero emissions in 2045.
And if you’ve paid attention, what happens to the automotive industry in California eventually makes its way to the rest of us.
Another reason? Market factors
You can thank the New York Stock Exchange, too, for the move toward an EV future. The Big Three are publicly traded and there is pressure from the market to “keep up” with market trends. Tesla’s market cap (or its worth as determined by the stock market) is more than the Big Three combined, a fact that doesn’t make investors in these companies happy.
Another market factor is the growth in demand in overseas markets. Chinese consumers, as an example, buy nearly three times the number of electric vehicles as U.S. consumers do with the market expected to continue to grow. While the majority of sales are compact passenger vehicles built by the domestic manufacturer BAIC, a GM model (produced as a joint venture with two other companies) recently became the No.1 seller. It is also interesting to note that the majority of EVs sold in China are BEVs, with only five PHEVs offered in the country. As the world’s mandates take hold, the market share for EVs can only rise and the Big Three want to be ready to claim their share.
Yet another reason is the falling costs and improvements in battery technology – a huge hindrance in being able to offer entry-level vehicles at an affordable price that could also deliver the range most Americans want. GM, in partnership with LG Chem, revealed in March of 2020 that their battery development will drive their battery costs down to less than $100 per kWh. In 2019, battery prices averaged $156 per kWh, down from $1100 per kWh in 2010.
They have increased vehicle range by increased battery capacity. GM's Ultium batteries will offer battery capacities that range from 50 kWh to a massive 200 kWh (compare that to the current Tesla 100 kWh battery fitted to the S and X models). The larger battery will be fitted to the 2022 Hummer EV and GM claims a 350- to 400-mile range from a single charge.
Contributing to the lower cost is a reduction in the amount of cobalt used in the battery’s manufacture, about 70 percent less when compared with other EV batteries. Cobalt is a rare and expensive metal and crucial in the production of lithium batteries. GM has also developed new charging technology. Most of their electric vehicles will have a standard operating voltage of 400 volts with a charging rate of 200 kW, but their trucks will be able to charge at 800 volts and 350 kW.
Attracting the American market?
Americans have a love for pickups. Whether the economy is up or down, or the price of gas is high or low, pickups are the leader in sales of light-duty/passenger vehicles.
But that might change when the automakers start unveiling their new vision of the American pick-up.
Earlier this year, GM announced plans to convert their Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Center to a facility designed to produce EVs on a grand scale, pledging an investment of more than $2.2 billion. The facility was recently renamed, now known as "Factory ZERO" to further express GM's new commitment to their "zero-crashes, zero-emissions and zero-congestion” vision of the future. Overall, GM is expected to invest more than $20 billion to bring 20 new EVs to market by 2023, and one of the first to roll off the assembly line will be the 2022 GMC Hummer.
The Hummer is GM’s answer to the Tesla Cybertruck and is nothing like the gas-guzzling Hummer you may remember. But it is a truck that should put a grin on any pickup lover’s face. When equipped with its top powertrain option, this monster claims up to 1,000 horsepower, using three electric motors on a “skateboard” platform. GM claims an estimated range of 350 miles per charge. The Hummer EV also features removable roof panels, an optional adjustable air suspension and a four-wheel steering feature that allows it to "crab" sideways – that is, drive diagonally – a feature off-roaders are sure to take advantage of.
Ford is also planning heavily on an EV future and will also attempt to convert some of their loyal F-150 owners by offering an EV version of this popular model. The Ford F-150 sells nearly 1 million units a year and buyers are already used to laying out $60,000 or more for a well-equipped model. If only 10 percent of Ford’s loyal following made the switch, that would mean sales of more than 100,000 units annually of the EV F-150.
The 3.5-liter PowerBoost full hybrid V6 powertrain offered in every trim level of the F-150 starting in the 2021 model year is a full hybrid powertrain and the most powerful propulsion package in the line, delivering 430 horsepower and 570 lb.-ft. of torque. It has an EPA-estimated range of approximately 700 miles on a single tank of gas and will deliver a maximum available 12,700 pounds towing capacity.
The PowerBoost hybrid powertrain combines Ford’s 3.5-liter EcoBoost engine and 10-speed SelectShift® automatic transmission with a 35-kilowatt (47-horsepower) electric motor integrated into the transmission. Power for the electric motor is provided by the 1.5 kWh Li battery. The battery is packaged underneath the truck.
Available Pro Power Onboard expands the F-150’s capability by bringing generator levels of exportable power. Pro Power Onboard is available with a 2.0-kilowatt output on the 2.7-liter EcoBoost V6 and 5.0-liter V8, while the PowerBoost-equipped F-150 comes standard with 2.4 kilowatts of output or an optional 7.2 kilowatts of output. Power is accessible through in-cabin outlets and up to four cargo bed-mounted 120-volt 20-amp outlets, with a 240-volt 30-amp outlet on the 7.2-kilowatt version. The system even provides power on the move to charge tool batteries in between jobs.
In response to these and other light truck offerings, even FCA sees electric in the future, announcing last October that a RAM EV is coming. No details were offered at the time this article was written, but as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Mike Manley said in their third quarter market report, “I do see that there will be an electrified Ram pickup in the marketplace, and I would ask you just to stay tuned for a little while, and we’ll tell you exactly when that will be."
Not just pickups
High-performance car fans won't have to wait long for an EV alternative either. And considering the instant torque electric motors can provide, the driving experience should be an exhilarating one.
First on the list is the 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E. Ford assures Mustang aficionados that the EV model isn't here to replace the venerable Mustang but to enhance the lineage and take it into the future. The top-of-the-line GT model promises 0-60 mph in less than 3 seconds, delivered by an AWD powertrain powered by a 98.8 kWh battery pack, producing 459 horsepower. The expected range on a single charge is 235 miles.
And what model is the Mustang’s greatest nemesis? The Chevrolet Camaro, of course! While there have been no formal announcements yet of a coming Camaro EV, a GM video teasing their future line-up provided a brief glimpse of a silhouette remarkably close to the current Camaro body lines.
And, like their RAM pickup peak, I wouldn’t count out an offering from FCA in the future.
For those of us hesitant to embrace EVs, rest assured that the gasoline and diesel powerplants we know and love aren’t going to disappear anytime soon. Even with the new proposals, the existing fleet will likely be left alone to die on its own accord. Even so, for those of you in the first half of your automotive career, it may be time to master high voltage systems so you’ll be in a position to capture your OWN market share.
